Analysis of macro-financial events: the recent domestic macroeconomic situation and resolve policy differences appear Market

Updated: May 20, 2016  Views: 198

Following the May 9 >> << People's Daily published 'authority' on China's economic situation assessment interviews caused the market hot after May 16 the State Council issued a document << China's economy to achieve a smooth operation, structural optimization, improved living conditions >> better start, two different views of the text caused the market hot.

<< >> People's Daily is the 'official' media, the People's Daily >> << State Council issued a document or Web site issued a document on behalf of the government policy direction, so the recent People's Daily >> and << State Council issued a document that the government expected the macro management, but there are different views of two packets, making the market for government policy direction appears confused, macro expectant management are not well play a role.

Differences: to judge the economic situation in the first quarter

'Authority': the overall trend in line with expectations, but the contradictions inherent in the economy did not ease, some new problems have exceeded expectations is difficult to use a simple concept of 'good start', 'spring', etc. are described .L type is a stage, not one. can past two years.

Superposition of two different views of the text in April of financial data makes the market situation and macroeconomic policies appear confused.

Our view of the macroeconomic situation: the second derivative of economic growth slowed in the short term will not appear strong stimulation drive the economy, the basic economic constraints in the face of downward interest rates weakened the market has partly reflected the expected slowdown in economic growth in the second derivative, the follow-up the concern is whether the economic data downlink in the next 1-2 months and whether the market is expected downward amplitude and deviation.

Monetary policy view: 'prudent' monetary policy, neither relaxed nor tightened, not relaxed the status quo: April attitude to financial data and the central bank, monetary policy will continue to fully turn on the water, not large-scale

Mold, put a wide range of credit in favor of promoting economic way through directed credit, injected liquidity through open market operations to the market orientation, although we believe that the second half of the financial side will not be much of a problem, but due to the seasonal impact of tax June and prudent macroeconomic management MPA factors still concerned about price volatility funds.

Not tightening: under economic pressure, in the case where there is no significant rise in prices, the possibility of monetary policy tightening, but need to focus on a smaller current rebound in oil prices may have inflationary pressures, or an impact on monetary policy variables.

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Traditional Chinese: 宏觀金融事件簡析:對近期國內宏觀經濟形勢及政策出現市場分歧解析